No.6 - Usain or Paula Punting?

Like a punting Rocky Balboa I am back in the game, I have dusted myself off from a previously bad betting weekend - stared lady luck in the face and given her a big fat snog. She kissed back.

With a good weekends punting behind me I have that dangerous confident feeling that I can pull this off. Losing is not good for enthusiasm; it really is a lot easier to sing when you’re winning. Hence the particular upbeat vibe to this post.

The reason I have started winning again is because I have stopped betting, I have merely started following. In a moment of rational reflection I decided that the reason the betting industry exists and thrives is because every punter thinks that they are an expert. When only a tiny percent of people actually make money from gambling, so it is folly for me to strut in and think I know something more than the bog standard Billy big time down the bookies.

From now on I am going to be a follower of the well advised. I have decided to let my intuition go for the main and go with those with stats, insight and more stats. I need to follow people who scribe their visions into ‘Red and Black’ Golden notebooks and not people who scribble them on shopping receipts and bear mats. Tis folly to not make the use of such tried and tested resources.

The problem with following good tipsters though is that you have to back every call, you can’t just pick and choose you have to make a commitment. So for the next few weeks, I will up my stakes and stick to the Cornerman’s musings. I will then pad this out with some off the cuff intuition stuff. Quick call Dr. Dre I think I just made a rhyme.

The corner handicaps for the weekend games come out on a Friday. So I will from now on write my bets up on a Friday night for the weekend. Then review the woe or glory on the Wednesday or Tuesday after. Those who know me know the chances of me consistently doing this are quite slim – to put it in horse racing terms about as likely as a 3 legged donkey winning a respectable race with 4 legged competitors. But I will have a good go at sticking to the plan. I am now using twitter as well so if you want a quick update you can follow the Speculative Punt on there. I will not be a 3-legged donkey.

So what happened this weekend just gone? I got on the blower to the Cornerman who gave me two bets he fancied. These were…

1. Blackburn vs Stoke – Blackburn -1 Corners on the handicap with WillHill @1.85

Result – Blackburn 9 v. Stoke 2 (won 8-2 convincing) £10 @ 1.85 = £18.50

2. Man City vs Hull – Man City -3 Corners on the handicap with WillHill @ 1.66

Result – Man City 8 v. Hull 2 (won 5-2 convincing) £10 @ 1.66 = £ 16.67

3. £5 Double – On the two results with WillHill @ 3.08 = £15.4

So armed with swagger and the confidence of an ever slightly growing pot. I tip toed into the Tuesday night football with a little bit of blind ooh look at me I won £25 on Saturday betting. I had a treble on Man Utd vs. Tottenham, Carlisle vs. Hartlepool and Bristol Rovers vs. Exeter.

£5 @ 6.29 = £36.45

This was not completely blind punting although when asked to name a single player for Carlisle, Hartlepool, Bristol Rovers or Exeter I did struggle quite a lot in fact I failed, David erm. Paul ah. Daniel aye. Grant aye don’t have a clue. But I do have my principles, home team advantage is always a big help in accumulators I find, I don’t like putting away teams in my accas. Don’t get too greedy, a treble is a good amount that extra 1.2 Arsenal at home will catch you out. I do have other principles as well, like….No I do, I just can’t think of them right this second.

So all in all things are looking good I am back up to £130 with 91.334% left to go.

This approach though is definitely that of a marathon and not a sprint, I want to have the balls of a Usain Bolt punter but seem to have the gonads of a good old Paula Radcliffe punter. A fine woman that she is, its just this approach is going to take me 3 hours to get there and not 9 seconds. I think my Bank manager would have liked me to have been there already – but he can wait. Keep the faith Clive at the bank we will get there.

Meanwhile if anybody has any good tips, insights, ideas on any punting markets anywhere in the world. Do get in touch, share the love and post them at the bottom in the comments section.

I will be back on Friday with the next weekends speculations.

Cheers, Paula.

No.5 - Double Darren Disaster

I have sadly realised that I had more money when I was born than I do now as a fully employed human being. Because at least when I was born to the world I had nothing – now I have minus. My last few weeks punting have not helped, I had such a disastrous weekend the week before last that I booked in a little weekend off scrupulous punting and headed to Manchester for some fine dining (kebab) and social frolicking (Fallowfield).

As I type this I am sat in first class train dining on my way to Leeds. This is not behaviour of a man with little dinero. But the train was rammed reservations went out the window and Kings Cross became a melee of luggage, prams and nob heads. So I skulked into the restaurant, which apparently doesn’t cost you any extra, you just have to get some food. Well I maybe just about to become the first man to make a bread roll and a Stella last about two hours. I could buy the lamb chops as well but then I could also feed the population of the Isle of Wight for the princely sum.

So back to punting. My big bet the week before last was in the Chelsea Manchester United game. I backed United to get the most cards and Darren Fletcher to get booked anytime at 3/1. Now if you watched that game you will understand my disappointment.

Darren Fletcher was like a crazed Yorkshire terrier scurrying around and nipping at ankles and occasionally booting them for good measure. How he did not get booked I do not know, I have never wanted a man to get booked more in my life. My only logical confusion for his card less game is that he is in fact having an affair with Martin Atkinson. Yes you heard it hear first.

To rub salt in the wound (whatever that means but I think it fits here) the booking points was a draw, a simple yellow to Darren would have made everything OK and my bread roll that I have nearly finished could actually be accompanied with the appropriate bowl of soup.

Other Great British pounds were lost on over 2.5 goals in the Tottenham Sunderland game, where another Darren let me down missing a penalty.

Curse all you Darren’s I say, except Darren Anderton though as I always felt sorry for him with his injuries and large horse like head. In short I found myself chasing my tail punting to make up for punting. My pot took a bit of a hit; I am back down to £80. Or £30 up from the initial £50. Half full or half empty?

I have a confession though I did put some bets on xfactor before it started. Serious punters I apologise I realise this is selling out and shameful but its not like Sir Patrick Moore reading his star sign. I had a frugal squirrel balled £2 bet on John and Edward at 100/1. They are now trading at about 16’s and I am now their biggest fan – who dare say they can’t sing they are merely misheard.

But real world punting resumes this weekend I fancy an over 2.5 goals double in the Burnley vs. Aston Villa game and the Sunderland vs. Arsenal game you can get this at about 2.96 on bet365. I think I will go all out with this on Betfair and trade if I get a bit nervous.

The result of this will determine if I have a punt on Sunday in the Stoke game. It may also determine if I eat next week.

No.4 - Stoke and the Peruvian Primera Division

One of my lowest punting moments is a tale of risk, bravery and hunger. It is not so much a tale, but more a short story. A Mills and Boon not a Chaucer. I was 3 days away from my student loan coming through and had only 60 fine shiny silver British pence to my sorry name. I was by no means Dickensian poor the rats of industrial Manchester did not nibble on my street ravaged toes as I slept between a set of big red Biffas. No I had a roof over my head and stealth like sly access to flatmates food so I was not without a paddle.

But I was in a rather bad way. Pride prevented me from calling the cornerman, so I did what all wise, wanting, believers would do and headed to the nearest fruit machine. Now I realise this was not the most sensible thing to do but the thought of upgrading a packet of ramen noodles to maybe a microwave lasagne was a chalice worth punting for. The thought of losing the 60p only occurred to me afterwards. But those 3 spins were worth it. Imagine if I’d pulled it off.

That’s how I feel about this betting quest – I may not reach the top of the hill but I will definitely enjoy the walk.

The weekend just gone was a quiet punting affair as I was moving flats in London town and could not commit the time to do it properly as I was busy unpacking cables I did not know I even packed and hanging up clothes I know I will never wear. What a thankless task unpacking is. But I had one bet to brighten the day backing the Sensible Sturdy Stoke at home to the Wobbly Wavering Wolves. That was my only bet, placing £20 at evens. I nipped quickly into a nearby coffee shop with my laptop at 3.30pm to see how I was getting on. At 1-0 up I stuck with the order of blog no.3 ‘rules and discipline’ and laid the bet off. £15 if Stoke win even if anything else.

The woman behind the counter looked at me as if I had done a wee in her dishwasher, I didn’t have time to buy a drink I just wanted a little piece of internet. Its only wifi after all you can’t steal wifi especially if it’s floating around flaunting itself in front of you. I offered to give it back to her when I left, which I thought was funny at the time. She didn’t. If anybody accuses you of stealing their wifi just accuse them of allowing their wifi to trespass.

Jody Craddock ruined the Stoke punt for me somehow managing to wangle a draw for Wolves at the Britannia. Please though I don’t blame him he was just doing his job but it did inconvenience me somewhat. But I laid off so simply broke even. Stoke have been somewhat of a banker of late, and I think 2.62 away at Hull next weekend looks very good. But maybe I’m being blinded by Pulis vision, that Tony is on his way to joining my list of other great Tones. Along with Tony Dorigo, Tony Hart and Tony Adams. Due to artistic differences Tony Blair, Tony the Tiger, Tony and Guy, and Toni Braxton will not this year be shortlisted.

Stoke did really bail me out the week before last. I was playboy punting thinking I was Billy Big Time as I had won a few little pounds, the problem of a healthy punting pot is that it arms you with a false sense of confidence.

But fortunately I spied Stoke away at Tottenham trading at 8.4 on Betfair and put a speculative £5 on it. I wasn’t sure that they would win but I thought they would put up a good fight plus it was great value. Excitedly and luckily they popped up with the winner with 5 minutes to go. Happy lucky days. You see the good thing about a healthy punting pot is that it arms you with a false sense of confidence.

So after the last two weeks trading I was another £20 up. Which is not a lot, but I got very close to being down so I’m quite happy. I now have 91.3333333% to go.

But I am back doing it properly now, I am all moved in and have spent this evening wandering the streets of London to buy an aerial for my set top box so I have uninterrupted access to Midweek Champions league and Saturday Sir Stelling (I’m not sure if it is illegal to call someone a Sir when they are not – but he is very good).

Not only is it Champions league, FA Cup and Haye vs Valuev at the weekend. There are also some tasty fixtures in the Peruvian Primera Division on Wednesday. Oh yes.

I have been having a look at placing my first global obscure punt and I believe I have found a very nice little double at bet365. Chalaco FC at home to Allanza Atletico at 1.8 is a great bet – I think. Chalaco FC have slumped down the league with three away defeats in a row but they return to the Miguel Grau stadium this week where they have a good record. Home form seems to be a massive advantage in the Peru Primera Division, as Chalaco showed impressively beating 2^nd in the league Huancayo 5-1 when last at home. With league top scorer Richard Maria Estigarribia in fine form i think them Chalcao lads will take some beating as they look to change their luck.

I would double this with Huancayo at home to Coronel Bolognesi at 1.6. Huancayo beat the Italian warlords 7-0 in this fixture last year, the Bolognesi lads did manage a 2-0 win at home against Huancayo this year but I think the home advantage will be enough for Huancayo to win. To check out global football leagues and stats have a look at soccerway.com.

Wednesday 4th of November, Double:- Chalaco and Huancayo @ 2.88 with bet365

I quite like this Peruvian don’t know what your doing punting, it is all part of the debt slaying journey, more part of the journey than the debt slaying bit. But I’ve got that optimistic 60p feeling,I just hope I don’t go hungry this time.