No.6 - Usain or Paula Punting?

Like a punting Rocky Balboa I am back in the game, I have dusted myself off from a previously bad betting weekend - stared lady luck in the face and given her a big fat snog. She kissed back.

With a good weekends punting behind me I have that dangerous confident feeling that I can pull this off. Losing is not good for enthusiasm; it really is a lot easier to sing when you’re winning. Hence the particular upbeat vibe to this post.

The reason I have started winning again is because I have stopped betting, I have merely started following. In a moment of rational reflection I decided that the reason the betting industry exists and thrives is because every punter thinks that they are an expert. When only a tiny percent of people actually make money from gambling, so it is folly for me to strut in and think I know something more than the bog standard Billy big time down the bookies.

From now on I am going to be a follower of the well advised. I have decided to let my intuition go for the main and go with those with stats, insight and more stats. I need to follow people who scribe their visions into ‘Red and Black’ Golden notebooks and not people who scribble them on shopping receipts and bear mats. Tis folly to not make the use of such tried and tested resources.

The problem with following good tipsters though is that you have to back every call, you can’t just pick and choose you have to make a commitment. So for the next few weeks, I will up my stakes and stick to the Cornerman’s musings. I will then pad this out with some off the cuff intuition stuff. Quick call Dr. Dre I think I just made a rhyme.

The corner handicaps for the weekend games come out on a Friday. So I will from now on write my bets up on a Friday night for the weekend. Then review the woe or glory on the Wednesday or Tuesday after. Those who know me know the chances of me consistently doing this are quite slim – to put it in horse racing terms about as likely as a 3 legged donkey winning a respectable race with 4 legged competitors. But I will have a good go at sticking to the plan. I am now using twitter as well so if you want a quick update you can follow the Speculative Punt on there. I will not be a 3-legged donkey.

So what happened this weekend just gone? I got on the blower to the Cornerman who gave me two bets he fancied. These were…

1. Blackburn vs Stoke – Blackburn -1 Corners on the handicap with WillHill @1.85

Result – Blackburn 9 v. Stoke 2 (won 8-2 convincing) £10 @ 1.85 = £18.50

2. Man City vs Hull – Man City -3 Corners on the handicap with WillHill @ 1.66

Result – Man City 8 v. Hull 2 (won 5-2 convincing) £10 @ 1.66 = £ 16.67

3. £5 Double – On the two results with WillHill @ 3.08 = £15.4

So armed with swagger and the confidence of an ever slightly growing pot. I tip toed into the Tuesday night football with a little bit of blind ooh look at me I won £25 on Saturday betting. I had a treble on Man Utd vs. Tottenham, Carlisle vs. Hartlepool and Bristol Rovers vs. Exeter.

£5 @ 6.29 = £36.45

This was not completely blind punting although when asked to name a single player for Carlisle, Hartlepool, Bristol Rovers or Exeter I did struggle quite a lot in fact I failed, David erm. Paul ah. Daniel aye. Grant aye don’t have a clue. But I do have my principles, home team advantage is always a big help in accumulators I find, I don’t like putting away teams in my accas. Don’t get too greedy, a treble is a good amount that extra 1.2 Arsenal at home will catch you out. I do have other principles as well, like….No I do, I just can’t think of them right this second.

So all in all things are looking good I am back up to £130 with 91.334% left to go.

This approach though is definitely that of a marathon and not a sprint, I want to have the balls of a Usain Bolt punter but seem to have the gonads of a good old Paula Radcliffe punter. A fine woman that she is, its just this approach is going to take me 3 hours to get there and not 9 seconds. I think my Bank manager would have liked me to have been there already – but he can wait. Keep the faith Clive at the bank we will get there.

Meanwhile if anybody has any good tips, insights, ideas on any punting markets anywhere in the world. Do get in touch, share the love and post them at the bottom in the comments section.

I will be back on Friday with the next weekends speculations.

Cheers, Paula.

No.4 - Stoke and the Peruvian Primera Division

One of my lowest punting moments is a tale of risk, bravery and hunger. It is not so much a tale, but more a short story. A Mills and Boon not a Chaucer. I was 3 days away from my student loan coming through and had only 60 fine shiny silver British pence to my sorry name. I was by no means Dickensian poor the rats of industrial Manchester did not nibble on my street ravaged toes as I slept between a set of big red Biffas. No I had a roof over my head and stealth like sly access to flatmates food so I was not without a paddle.

But I was in a rather bad way. Pride prevented me from calling the cornerman, so I did what all wise, wanting, believers would do and headed to the nearest fruit machine. Now I realise this was not the most sensible thing to do but the thought of upgrading a packet of ramen noodles to maybe a microwave lasagne was a chalice worth punting for. The thought of losing the 60p only occurred to me afterwards. But those 3 spins were worth it. Imagine if I’d pulled it off.

That’s how I feel about this betting quest – I may not reach the top of the hill but I will definitely enjoy the walk.

The weekend just gone was a quiet punting affair as I was moving flats in London town and could not commit the time to do it properly as I was busy unpacking cables I did not know I even packed and hanging up clothes I know I will never wear. What a thankless task unpacking is. But I had one bet to brighten the day backing the Sensible Sturdy Stoke at home to the Wobbly Wavering Wolves. That was my only bet, placing £20 at evens. I nipped quickly into a nearby coffee shop with my laptop at 3.30pm to see how I was getting on. At 1-0 up I stuck with the order of blog no.3 ‘rules and discipline’ and laid the bet off. £15 if Stoke win even if anything else.

The woman behind the counter looked at me as if I had done a wee in her dishwasher, I didn’t have time to buy a drink I just wanted a little piece of internet. Its only wifi after all you can’t steal wifi especially if it’s floating around flaunting itself in front of you. I offered to give it back to her when I left, which I thought was funny at the time. She didn’t. If anybody accuses you of stealing their wifi just accuse them of allowing their wifi to trespass.

Jody Craddock ruined the Stoke punt for me somehow managing to wangle a draw for Wolves at the Britannia. Please though I don’t blame him he was just doing his job but it did inconvenience me somewhat. But I laid off so simply broke even. Stoke have been somewhat of a banker of late, and I think 2.62 away at Hull next weekend looks very good. But maybe I’m being blinded by Pulis vision, that Tony is on his way to joining my list of other great Tones. Along with Tony Dorigo, Tony Hart and Tony Adams. Due to artistic differences Tony Blair, Tony the Tiger, Tony and Guy, and Toni Braxton will not this year be shortlisted.

Stoke did really bail me out the week before last. I was playboy punting thinking I was Billy Big Time as I had won a few little pounds, the problem of a healthy punting pot is that it arms you with a false sense of confidence.

But fortunately I spied Stoke away at Tottenham trading at 8.4 on Betfair and put a speculative £5 on it. I wasn’t sure that they would win but I thought they would put up a good fight plus it was great value. Excitedly and luckily they popped up with the winner with 5 minutes to go. Happy lucky days. You see the good thing about a healthy punting pot is that it arms you with a false sense of confidence.

So after the last two weeks trading I was another £20 up. Which is not a lot, but I got very close to being down so I’m quite happy. I now have 91.3333333% to go.

But I am back doing it properly now, I am all moved in and have spent this evening wandering the streets of London to buy an aerial for my set top box so I have uninterrupted access to Midweek Champions league and Saturday Sir Stelling (I’m not sure if it is illegal to call someone a Sir when they are not – but he is very good).

Not only is it Champions league, FA Cup and Haye vs Valuev at the weekend. There are also some tasty fixtures in the Peruvian Primera Division on Wednesday. Oh yes.

I have been having a look at placing my first global obscure punt and I believe I have found a very nice little double at bet365. Chalaco FC at home to Allanza Atletico at 1.8 is a great bet – I think. Chalaco FC have slumped down the league with three away defeats in a row but they return to the Miguel Grau stadium this week where they have a good record. Home form seems to be a massive advantage in the Peru Primera Division, as Chalaco showed impressively beating 2^nd in the league Huancayo 5-1 when last at home. With league top scorer Richard Maria Estigarribia in fine form i think them Chalcao lads will take some beating as they look to change their luck.

I would double this with Huancayo at home to Coronel Bolognesi at 1.6. Huancayo beat the Italian warlords 7-0 in this fixture last year, the Bolognesi lads did manage a 2-0 win at home against Huancayo this year but I think the home advantage will be enough for Huancayo to win. To check out global football leagues and stats have a look at soccerway.com.

Wednesday 4th of November, Double:- Chalaco and Huancayo @ 2.88 with bet365

I quite like this Peruvian don’t know what your doing punting, it is all part of the debt slaying journey, more part of the journey than the debt slaying bit. But I’ve got that optimistic 60p feeling,I just hope I don’t go hungry this time.

No.1 - Poor Mans Steve Palmer

Long empty weekends are the breeding ground for bad and good ideas, this weekend has been one of those weekends. The sheer absence of anything to do is a luxury riddled with pitfalls; the greatest pitfall is the bad idea that you decide to carry out.

Well I have hatched a bad/good idea. The fact you are reading this suggests I am carrying it through. I will treat this blog like a roller coaster, this first post is the safety pads locking over my nervous shoulders, there is now no getting off. I just hope the egg that I am hatching spawns a triumphant eagle worthy of an American flag and not a feral bird flu carrying feather ball worthy of a fire.

Simply put the plan is to turn £50 into £1,500 through the artistry of gambling. The winnings of which will go to paying off my student overdraft that is looming over me like a dark money cloud of doom. I appreciate this plan is nowhere near full proof. Mr Bankman if you are reading this,

“I am sorry. But stick with me be optimistic. Imagine if I pull it off.”

In fact from now on I will avoid the word gambling its a word weighted by the assumption of losing, the last thing this tin pot idea needs is any negativity. It exists on a thread of positivity as it is. Speculating is a better word.

I realise that the ingredients for this speculative blog do not at first glance seem the makings of a literary feast. The best ingredient I could have is money, which I lack severely. Big bets make better reading be it through fear, awe or jealousy of a big pair of betting balls. For those who read the Racing Post they will know who Steve Palmer is. For those that don’t please have a look at this brilliant blog.

It is real man betting. In comparison this betting blog is a poor mans plastic replica, the sort that makes your wrist go green.

This blog needed spicing up. Then it came to me whilst betting in running on bet365.

I was looking to back Everton a couple of weeks ago at home to AEK Athens. They flew out the traps in that game like a Usain Bolt greyhound hybrid. Which would be an unlikely combo as I’m sure Usain Bolt is not into bestiality. But Everton did look a good bet, of course as I got the price up Yobo confirmed my assumptions and nodded in the first of four. Which is a stomach churning feeling. The optimist in you says at least you got it right and your intuition is well wired. But the realist says bollocks I could have made a penny or two on that, had I been quick enough.

There is absolutely no satisfaction in an I told you so. Which is exactly why I am wary of people who place sportsmen bets, where the winner receives a penniless payment of smugness. The only thing worse than an ‘I told you so’ is an ‘I told you so’ from a smug git.

So we move on.

As I watched Everton score goals for fun in the background, I scoured the bet365 website. Then I arrived at Bandy, The Guatemalan Premier League and Trotting. Those bet365 people really do have a plethora of markets. This is what I needed.

Throughout this blog I will place a couple of bets a month on a sport I know nothing about from a country outside the UK. I will not bet blind though I will read up on Swedish Floorball and Pelota and share my thoughts. Odds compilers if Bjorn and I are the only ones backing Balrog IK at home to AIK its not that i am in a match fixing coalition with the Swedish mafia. I am just having a punt, a speculative punt at that.

And so this debt slaying journey begins...